Election 2010 - the half way point

The Australian election is now half over.

Following the ‘leaders debate’ the major parties started the process of making, as they always do, targeted promises to win specific constituencies as the ‘momentum’ magically builds one way or another.

And so the ALP made promises in areas such as hospital staffing, suicide prevention, water harvesting from stormwater drains, a disability strategy….… and a rail link to Redcliffe (met and matched by the Opposition, to the surprise of the local candidate).

The Liberals made promises on slowing the growth of marine parks, a ring road for Cairns, an education card for disabled students and their version of hospital funding, with their largest promise being a promise to reduce company tax to the general level promised by the ALP…..a bit of a surprise given the Leader had previously said ‘no one much is going to notice a 2 per cent cut in company tax’.

However, the Kevin Rudd issue – how he was dumped and what he would do in the future – as well as strategic leaks about what Julia Gillard may or may not have thought about pension increases and paid maternity leave dominated the second week, leading to a dysfunctional looking ALP and polls showing the Liberals either tied with or just ahead of Labor at the end of week 2.

And so week 3 began with the ‘old’ Julia Gillard becoming ‘feisty Julia’, taunting Abbott to debate her on economics as well as doing wild and risky things like riding on the campaign media bus (!) whilst Tony Abbott continued to campaign in the restrained manner of the front runner, concluding with a policy launch long on contrasts with Labor but short of policy specifics.

The reason why cosmetic issues like the ‘old Julia’ has changed into the ‘new Julia’ is so newsworthy is because there are few massive differences between the parties.

The presence or absence of a national broadband network, an absence of a mining tax, temporary protection visas and the extension of unfair contract laws to small business are the only real areas of difference – most other things are differences in emphasis and timing.

This should be expected because of the way Australian politics is structured.

There are two main reasons for this.

Compulsory voting means that so called ‘rusted on’ voters can be overlooked.

This leads to a practical exercise of what is called Hotelling’s Law, which presumes that the optimal place for a business (or political party) to focus its attention is the perceived half way point of its target market.

Thus in this context everything is aimed at the ‘swinging voter’ in the middle of the political spectrum.

Moreover, it is our experience that many (if not the majority) of people involved in parliamentary politics could just as easily work for the other side.

This is because those who choose to participate in politics are generally middle class tertiary educated people who are vaguely socially progressive, and whilst not anti-market nevertheless possess a belief in an activist government that can intervene to improve the lot of society, usually through the continued creation of entitlements to ‘worthy’ recipients falling within targeted eligibility grounds.

It is also the case that they are overwhelmingly young and with little experience in small business (in particular) or in broader community life.

The result is that parliamentary government is in the hands of a narrow political class with an equally narrow world view.

Little wonder that this election is one of the most soulless ever conducted.

For all of that, we are now in the second half of the campaign. The ‘new Julia’ appears to have steadied the ALP ship and is segueing towards her preferred battleground of eduction.

Conversely, the coalition campaign appears to have remained still for the better part of week 3, as Labor went through their woes.

However, they may have played it too safe.

Despite all the tremors within Labor, attacks on Abbott’s economic credentials and readiness for government and an absence of strong coalition positives may have had an effect - the ALP is now marginally in front.

Gillard’s incessant requests for a debate on economics may also have had some effect, as both she and Abbott are to front the same public meeting at the delightfully named Rooty Hill, in Western Sydney.

This will undoubtedly be the starting platform for the last stanza of election 2010.