Are All These Leadership Changes Healthy?

Labor has replaced Kevin Rudd with Julia Gillard.

Others have commented on the machinations leading to the change, so we will leave it to others to comment on its political benefits to the ALP, whilst history can decide whether stories of temper outbursts and dysfunctional decision making will mean Rudd will be regarded as Labor’s Billy McMahon.

We will examine matters from another angle: the parliamentary parties of the 42nd Parliament have functioned as they should have - as representatives of the constituencies they represent.

The Liberals have seen four leaders (Costello (very nominally), Nelson, Turnbull and Rudd) and the ALP two (Rudd and Gillard).

For the Liberals, the retiring Costello was replaced by Nelson, who was the most attractive ‘not Malcolm Turnbull’ candidate standing as leader.

This was appropriate for a party room not totally sharing the inner urban policy priorities that Turnbull represented – from things like placing a greater weight on the environment as an abstract issue through support of policies such as the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) to possessing less hawkish view on boat arrivals, and so forth.

Nelson was then removed for simply not cutting it. This is rational behaviour for a parliamentary party aiming for early return to government. The party turned to Turnbull – the only candidate making himself available.

Turnbull was replaced in turn by Abbott, largely over the ETS.

It will be remembered that Turnbull staked his leadership on the policy.

He didn’t make the argument well enough to persuade the majority of the party room to abandon the views of core supporters – those who were genuinely climate sceptics or believed in the low taxation and limited government participation in the economy, as well as those for whom the fear of increased costs and possible loss of employment opportunities as a result of the introduction of the ETS trumped general concerns about ‘the environment’.

The net result is an Opposition Leader running a traditional platform for a centre right party, with its emphasis on opposing ‘great big new taxes’ on everything, preserving national security and so forth.

The Rudd/Gillard change illustrates the same dynamic.

Rudd announced so many policy initiatives to solve The Greatest Moral Threat of our Time (or similar rhetoric) in so many areas the view was formed that he overpromised and underdelivered.


The ALP (particularly the NSW Right) see themselves as the guardian of the various programmes incrementally introduced by Labor over the course of time, doing (to coin a phrase) whatever it takes – to the point of appearing nihilistic – to ensure electoral success.

Rudd’s lack of programmatic specificity in speech left this at risk.

The ALP also remains part of the overall union movement.

As Paul Howes said on Lateline on 23 June 2010:

TONY JONES, PRESENTER: One of the key moments of tonight's extraordinary developments was the announcement that the Australian Workers Union had lost
confidence in Kevin Rudd and was backing a move to Julia Gillard. Well the national secretary of the AWU is Paul Howes. He joins us in the studio. Why did you do that?

PAUL HOWES, NATIONAL SECRETARY, AUSTRALIAN WORKERS' UNION: Well we've been looking at what's in the best interests of the members of our union. We know that if Tony Abbott is elected as a prime minister of Australia, Work Choices will be back, the legislation which ripped away fairness from our workplaces will be reinstituted on our members, reimposed on our members, and we know that Labor's message had been lost for the last few weeks, and in fact months, under the Prime Minister's leadership. We have to look at what's in the best interests of our members of our union to ensure fairness remains in our member workplaces and we think that Julia Gillard is the best option to lead Labor to victory at the upcoming election.

Given the relative influence of the factions and unions over the parliamentary ALP, Caucus elected a new Prime Minister who said in her first public statement after taking the job:

And….I believe fundamentally that the basic education and health services that Australians rely on and their decent treatment at work is at risk at the next election.

I love this country and I was not going to sit idly by and watch an incoming Opposition cut education, cut health and smash rights at work.

A very traditional Labor platform.

So, there it is.

After some policy deviations the two major parties have come up with leaders reflecting their traditional values – all as a result of the parliamentary parties acting more proactively against decisions made by the executives of the parties than Australians have become accustomed.

It is now up to the electorate to decide who will form the new government.